The Role of Injuries in Football Predictions: Our Impact Analysis
How missing key players affects match outcomes — our injury severity model covers 30 injury types with position-specific impact analysis.
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Why Injuries Matter More Than You Think
A single injury can swing a match prediction by 5-15%. But not all injuries are equal — losing a starting goalkeeper to a knee injury is very different from losing a backup winger to a minor knock. Our InjuryService quantifies these differences precisely.
30 Injury Types, Each Weighted Differently
Our model assigns severity weights (0.3 to 1.0) to every injury type. ACL tears (1.0) completely remove a player from consideration, while minor muscle fatigue (0.3) only partially reduces their expected contribution. Head injuries, broken bones, and ligament damage all have specific severity scores based on historical recovery data.
Position-Specific Impact
Losing a striker affects predictions differently than losing a defender. Our system categorizes the impact into offensive and defensive components:
- Forwards: Higher impact on goals scored, Over/Under, and BTTS
- Midfielders: Balanced impact across all markets
- Defenders: Higher impact on clean sheets and Under predictions
- Goalkeepers: Significant impact on all defensive metrics
Squad Depth Analysis
It's not just about who's injured — it's about who replaces them. Our system evaluates squad depth by position to determine whether a team can adequately cover their absentees. A club with world-class depth (like Manchester City) is less affected by individual injuries than a mid-table team with a thin squad.
How This Improves Predictions
By incorporating injury data, our ensemble model adjusts both the 1X2 probabilities and the goal-related markets (O/U, BTTS). If a team's top scorer is out, Over predictions are reduced. If their best defender is missing, BTTS probability increases. These adjustments happen automatically for every prediction we generate.